With all the hype and excitement expressed about the Apple iPad in all sorts of media outlets, one might think the iPad is some kind of revolutionary gadget that is a “game changer” in the way we communicate. In reality, it’s more like a minor evolution of the Apple iPod Touch. To hear Steve Jobs go on about how the iPad is filling a gap between smart phones and computers is almost laughable to me. I don’t see how something that is neither a smart phone or a computer fills some sort of a gap. The iPad can’t replace a smart phone or a computer, so I guess Steve wants us to carry all three.
To be totally frank, I think Apple blew it big time. Basically, the iPad is only an iPod Touch with a bigger screen. If it was more of a computer I could see value in it. In a check of a recent Sunday newspaper, Best Buy had an ad on the back page for an Asus Netbook that is $299. It does way more than an iPad and gives you the freedom of choosing the 3G/4G carrier of your choosing for broadband on the go. Granted this particular Netbook doesn’t have a touch screen, it weighs a little more, and is a bit thicker, but just like the iPad, you won’t be putting an Netbook in your pocket.
One of the reported major targets of the iPad is that of an eReader. In this function, it certainly adds the level of color which is not something that is all that important for reading. In fact, a high-contrast monochrome screen like many of those used in the current batch of eReaders on the market is easier to read in all of the lighting conditions one would encounter while using the device. the initial impact of the is already being felt in the cost of eBooks. Amazon is trying to hold the line on a price point of $9.99 for most eBooks, but Apple is pushing $15.99 (30-70 split) and strong arming the publishers to insist that other eBook sources like Amazon follow suit. The clout of Apple is undeniable based on the huge success of their iPhone/iTunes business model, so look for a price increase on eBooks thanks to Apple.
Another area that the iPad is reported to be targeting is tablet style PC’s, also called slate PC’s. If you look at some of the product announcements that came out of CES last January, you’ll find most major PC (and some new) companies releasing tablet style PC’s that are no where close to being as crippled as the iPad. On the value side of things, for the cost of a fully loaded iPad, you can get the HP TouchSmart tm2, a real laptop computer with a touchscreen. Another option that is even less money, is the Asus Eee PC T91 or T101H touchscreen Netbook. In addition, there are some tablet style PC’s running Windows 7 already in the marketplace from small name companies, to be followed by the big names like HP (HP Slate was shown at CES).
The shortcomings of the iPad are many. Some of the key ones are, it’s not HD, has no HDMI output or USB port, does not have any external memory ports (like for inserting SD cards), lacks multitasking, has no support for Flash in the browser, typing on it is still less satisfying than a real keyboard (or $70 more gets you a wireless keyboard), the battery is not replaceable, can’t upgrade anything about it except the software, and if you go 3G, you’ve got a limited AT&T network.
Interestingly, Verizon Wireless is readying a marketing campaign to push their MiFi 2200 for the iPad. Their goal is to have potential iPad users skip the 3G model and have them go for the Wi-Fi model. Then iPad users could use their Wi-Fi connection with the Verizon MiFi 2200 to get 3G coverage. It’s quite obvious that Verizon is pushing their larger 3G network with their “there’s a map for that” advertising program.
The iPad value proposition is somewhat questionable, but the Apple sheep don’t seem to care with more than 50,000 units estimated to have been sold in the first 2 hours that pre-orders were accepted. Apple hasn’t released figures for the pre-sale, but some industry analyst’s were the ones estimating the 50,000 units in the first two hours and are predicting the initial 300.000 units will be gone before the April 3rd general sale.
I’m sure Apple will sell a bunch of iPad‘s just because they are perceived as cool and they have a slick interface. The whole eReader market is warming up, but I don’t think it will take off until roll-up displays are affordable for the masses. People complain already about some smartphones being too fat, so I don’t see the iPad as something you’ll see a lot of people toting around. If you do have to carry something around, wouldn’t a real PC make more sense than the iPad? Smartphone’s already do much more to connect you to the world than the iPad and they fit in your pocket.
Basically, I don’t understand why people want to limit themselves. Everyone I know with an iPhone loves the phone and hates the “phone” part (a not so good phone on a crappy network – in many areas). At this point, the iPhone has many choices of accessories and software, but Apple still dictates software distribution. So in some ways there are lots of choices, but in other ways people have resorted to “jail breaking” (hacking) their iPhones to get them to do what they want them to do.
In the smartphone marketplace, I see the Android platform with greatest potential to slow, if not reverse, the growth of the iPhone. Many analysts in the wireless phone industry are already predicting that Android will see explosive growth and that Apple will probably flatten out. Given that the Android platform has the potential to give the marketplace a wider range of choices, from a simplified interface smartphone, to a hackers dream of nearly full customization, Apple may finally begin to loose a little marketshare. In addition, there are already some Android based slate style devices for those who want a bigger screen, and this will certainly compete with the iPad.
Is the iPad going to pass or fail? Some predict that the iPad is a “game changer.” I personally never thought the iPhone would be as successful as it is, but Apple has had several “failures” in its past. The latest was AppleTV, which didn’t see mass appeal. Apple also tried this “slate” type thing before. Do you remember the Apple Newton? In the end, the marketplace will pick the winners and losers. While all indications are that the iPad will come out the gate fast, there are plenty of other (potentially better) choices for people willing to look. The iPhone and iPod had no real competition for quite some time, so this contributed greatly to their success. The iPad may never be considered a “failure” by most, but I certainly don’t think it will be in the same success class as the iPhone or iPod given the choices already in place before it launches.
As is the case with most things, people will vote with their wallets. It will be interesting see if Apple can pull it off again and get most of the wallet share of the “tablet/slate” market like they did with MP3 players and smartphones. Or will they have another Newton/AppleTV on their hands? With the iPad at it’s current $499 to $829 price range, and it’s limitations, I think “failure” is greater probability. From the perspective of this technology guy with many gadgets, I think the potential for classifying the iPad as “fail” is much greater than “pass,” as long as one is evaluating the iPad in it’s current form. I think the chances are pretty good that Apple won’t waiting too long to release iPad 2.0 when their sales goals for 1.0 don’t materialize.
I do have an idea of where something like the iPad (form factor) would have great success, and that is as an auxiliary display and input device. I’d call it the iPal and make it so that it was Bluetooth/Wifi connectable to most any PC or smartphone. That way people would have a portable larger display option and larger virtual keyboard when needed for their smartphone, or provide a portable terminal like device wireless connected to a primary home PC, or company server. It would have to be priced in the $200 – $300 price range in order to make it viable.
Do you think the iPad is the missing link between smartphones and laptops and worth the price? Or are you like me and think it’s nothing more than an overpriced, oversized iPod?
iPad = iFail